Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2612 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2612 DEN 05:00 → DFW 08:05 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1322 DEN 18:10 → DFW 21:18 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2612 American Flight history →	DEN 05:00	DFW 08:05	8%	4%	2.3%	90%
UA 2160 United Flight history →	DEN 07:32	DFW 10:39	9%	4%	0.6%	90%
AA 2078 American Flight history →	DEN 06:20	DFW 09:27	10%	4%	2.1%	87%
AA 3285 American Flight history →	DEN 06:33	DFW 09:41	10%	4%	1.6%	90%
UA 1350 United Flight history →	DEN 09:42	DFW 12:47	12%	5%	0.6%	85%
F9 2550 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:29	DFW 09:37	16%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 1090 American Flight history →	DEN 07:22	DFW 10:29	16%	5%	1.8%	75%
AA 852 American Flight history →	DEN 07:36	DFW 10:43	16%	5%	1.8%	81%
UA 578 United Flight history →	DEN 13:45	DFW 16:51	18%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 2239 United Flight history →	DEN 20:53	DFW 23:59	18%	7%	0.6%	69%
UA 414 United Flight history →	DEN 15:42	DFW 18:48	19%	10%	0.6%	63%
AA 1523 American Flight history →	DEN 09:04	DFW 12:07	19%	7%	1.8%	82%
UA 1565 United Flight history →	DEN 18:53	DFW 21:59	20%	9%	0.6%	69%
AA 1756 American Flight history →	DEN 10:38	DFW 13:40	22%	6%	1.3%	69%
F9 3366 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:09	DFW 13:19	23%	8%	0.7%	78%
AA 2359 American Flight history →	DEN 12:39	DFW 15:47	26%	9%	1.8%	64%
AA 420 American Flight history →	DEN 15:11	DFW 18:21	30%	10%	1.3%	69%
AA 1832 American Flight history →	DEN 16:23	DFW 19:34	31%	10%	1.9%	61%
F9 2148 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 17:23	DFW 20:36	33%	13%	0.7%	57%
F9 4070 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 14:55	DFW 18:03	33%	13%	0.7%	66%
AA 1322 American Flight history →	DEN 18:10	DFW 21:18	35%	10%	1.3%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON