Today: UA 4801 at 07:52 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet today UA 4801 DEN 07:52 → DSM 10:42 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest WN 2361 DEN 19:30 → DSM 22:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4801 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 07:52	DSM 10:42	11%	3%	0.4%	100%worse than usual
OO 5361 SkyWest	DEN 08:08	DSM 11:14	12%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 596 United Flight history →	DEN 09:51	DSM 12:45	13%	4%	0.2%	83%
UA 5211 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:50	DSM 12:47	15%	4%	0.4%	92%
WN 1524 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	DSM 12:50	15%	2%	0.2%	88%
UA 1311 United Flight history →	DEN 13:30	DSM 16:15	19%	5%	0.6%	89%
WN 3984 Southwest	DEN 10:40	DSM 13:29	24%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 1213 United	DEN 21:07	DSM 00:02	25%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 549 United Flight history →	DEN 17:40	DSM 20:30	30%	8%	0.6%	77%
UA 5389 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:45	DSM 23:44	30%	6%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
F9 1678 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:42	DSM 19:42	31%	8%	0.7%	83%worse than usual
WN 2940 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:35	DSM 22:25	33%	9%	0.5%	12%
WN 2361 Southwest	DEN 19:30	DSM 22:20	33%	9%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON