Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1745 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 1745 DEN 06:05 → DTW 10:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2193 DEN 19:05 → DTW 23:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 30% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1745 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:05	DTW 10:54	9%	3%	0.2%	90%
DL 1113 Delta	DEN 10:58	DTW 15:48	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2787 Delta Flight history →	DEN 10:25	DTW 15:19	11%	4%	0.6%	84%
UA 1915 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	DTW 14:27	12%	3%	0.6%	96%
DL 1096 Delta Flight history →	DEN 00:59	DTW 05:48	14%	4%	0.2%	91%
WN 1582 Southwest	DEN 11:00	DTW 15:45	18%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DEN 14:59	DTW 19:49	18%	6%	0.6%	83%
F9 3566 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:25	DTW 15:25	19%	6%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
WN 1526 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:20	DTW 17:05	22%	3%	0.5%	65%
UA 1220 United Flight history →	DEN 17:47	DTW 22:43	25%	6%	0.6%	70%
F9 4186 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:59	DTW 23:59	28%	10%	0.6%	68%
WN 1583 Southwest	DEN 18:49	DTW 23:40	30%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 2193 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	DTW 23:55	30%	5%	0.5%	30%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON