Today: WN 3993 at 10:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–34%.

Safest bet today WN 3993 DEN 10:30 → ELP 12:22 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 333 DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 3993 Southwest	DEN 10:30	ELP 12:22	10%	1%	0.1%	no record
UA 2128 United	DEN 11:20	ELP 13:11	14%	4%	0.1%	no record
UA 792 United Flight history →	DEN 11:45	ELP 13:35	15%	4%	0.1%	83%
F9 2261 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:10	ELP 18:04	25%	8%	0.3%	80%
WN 1586 Southwest	DEN 20:55	ELP 22:47	30%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1319 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	ELP 22:50	30%	6%	0.5%	49%
WN 1530 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:20	ELP 19:10	33%	6%	0.2%	36%
UA 333 United Flight history →	DEN 19:20	ELP 21:11	34%	6%	0.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON