Today: WN 1532 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–28%.

Safest bet today WN 1532 DEN 07:50 → EUG 09:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1303 DEN 19:35 → EUG 21:21 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1532 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	EUG 09:35	11%	3%	0.8%	88%
WN 3995 Southwest	DEN 08:35	EUG 10:18	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 318 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	EUG 12:57	23%	8%	0.3%	73%
WN 3821 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	EUG 22:45	27%	6%	0.7%	33%
WN 4411 Southwest	DEN 20:50	EUG 22:34	28%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1303 United Flight history →	DEN 19:35	EUG 21:21	28%	8%	0.7%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON