Today: UA 1745 at 23:59 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–36%.

Safest bet today UA 1745 DEN 23:59 → EWR 05:40 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1715 DEN 15:35 → EWR 21:29 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1745 United Flight history →	DEN 23:59	EWR 05:40	18%	3%	0.9%	92%
UA 2381 United Flight history →	DEN 10:22	EWR 15:30	26%	11%	0.2%	81%
UA 2613 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	EWR 23:44	31%	9%	0.3%	71%
UA 1233 United Flight history →	DEN 11:37	EWR 17:31	33%	10%	0.3%	77%
UA 1505 United Flight history →	DEN 13:41	EWR 19:35	36%	13%	0.2%	70%
UA 1283 United Flight history →	DEN 12:40	EWR 18:35	36%	11%	0.3%	71%
UA 1715 United Flight history →	DEN 15:35	EWR 21:29	36%	13%	0.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON