Today: UA 5655 at 11:29 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet today UA 5655 DEN 11:29 → FAT 13:14 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4461 DEN 14:40 → FAT 16:00 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Against a calm day 25% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5655 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:29	FAT 13:14	15%	5%	0.2%	92%
UA 4806 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:57	FAT 17:42	23%	7%	0.6%	89%worse than usual
UA 756 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	FAT 21:05	24%	10%	0.6%	77%
UA 1172 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	FAT 20:55	26%	11%	0.6%	50%
WN 1589 Southwest	DEN 13:25	FAT 14:49	26%	4%	0.1%	no record
UA 5978 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:33	FAT 17:01	27%	7%	0.6%	87%worse than usual
WN 4461 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:40	FAT 16:00	31%	6%	0.1%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON