Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 2188 at 09:47 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2188 DEN 09:47 → FLL 15:47 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest WN 4222 DEN 14:55 → FLL 20:50 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2188 United Flight history →	DEN 09:47	FLL 15:47	11%	4%	0.6%	83%
UA 1374 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	FLL 23:49	14%	6%	0.6%	77%
WN 4222 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:55	FLL 20:50	33%	6%	0.5%	35%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 09:39 → ATL 14:35DL 2235	50m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → FLL 17:23DL 2345	5h 44m	86%	73%
Delta Details →	DEN 10:52 → ATL 15:52DL 346	47m Atlanta	ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295	5h 48m	84%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON