Today: UA 645 at 17:28 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27–39%.

Safest bet today UA 645 DEN 17:28 → FSD 20:08 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest F9 2108 DEN 16:42 → FSD 19:23 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 645 United Flight history →	DEN 17:28	FSD 20:08	22%	11%	0.2%	78%
OO 309 SkyWest	DEN 21:02	FSD 23:47	27%	15%	0.5%	no record
UA 5700 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	FSD 23:53	28%	16%	0.5%	79%
OO 5229 SkyWest	DEN 15:35	FSD 18:18	35%	14%	0.5%	no record
UA 4776 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	FSD 18:16	35%	13%	0.5%	73%
F9 2108 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:42	FSD 19:23	39%	18%	0.4%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON