Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 971 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 971 DEN 08:35 → GEG 09:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 778 DEN 19:40 → GEG 21:05 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 971 Southwest	DEN 08:35	GEG 09:59	6%	1%	0.4%	no record
WN 3433 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	GEG 09:10	12%	2%	0.1%	90%
OO 5859 SkyWest	DEN 13:42	GEG 15:30	14%	9%	0.7%	no record
UA 324 United Flight history →	DEN 13:46	GEG 15:11	16%	6%	0.5%	87%
UA 295 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	GEG 12:35	19%	4%	0.5%	83%
WN 4440 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:05	GEG 17:30	22%	4%	0.4%	71%
UA 778 United Flight history →	DEN 19:40	GEG 21:05	30%	7%	0.5%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON