Today: UA 4704 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–28%.

Safest bet today UA 4704 DEN 09:35 → GJT 10:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest OO 5491 DEN 20:51 → GJT 21:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 4704 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	GJT 10:44	13%	5%	0.3%	88%
UA 4770 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:20	GJT 17:33	17%	7%	0.3%	72%
UA 5488 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:25	GJT 14:40	17%	8%	0.3%	86%
OO 498 SkyWest	DEN 16:38	GJT 17:45	20%	8%	0.3%	no record
UA 1714 United Flight history →	DEN 11:24	GJT 12:31	22%	6%	0.2%	87%
UA 5240 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	GJT 22:11	22%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 431 United Flight history →	DEN 19:25	GJT 20:34	25%	8%	0.1%	72%
OO 5491 SkyWest	DEN 20:51	GJT 21:57	28%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON