Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:05 pm at Denver); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 2121 at 17:55, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 2121 United Flight history →	DEN 17:55	GRR 22:35	29%	9%	0.1%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 16:08 → MSP 19:15DL 2271	2h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 21:40 → GRR 23:59DL 1711	5h 51m	98%	76%
United Details →	DEN 16:29 → ORD 20:14UA 675	1h 26m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → GRR 23:57UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	5h 28m	88%	69%
Southwest Details →	DEN 15:50 → MDW 19:15WN 1603	2h 30m Chicago	MDW 21:45 → GRR 23:48WN 4572	5h 58m	97%	65%
United Details →	DEN 16:47 → ORD 20:17UA 1131	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 21:47 → GRR 23:48UA 1819	5h 01m	88%	65%
Delta Details →	DEN 15:10 → ATL 20:22DL 957	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → GRR 23:54DL 2865	6h 44m	91%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DEN 16:59 → ORD 20:40UA 352	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 21:40 → GRR 23:57UA 5303 · flown by SkyWest	4h 58m	74%	58%
American Details →	DEN 15:57 → CLT 21:27AA 1735	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 22:28 → GRR 00:20 +1AA 3113	6h 23m	69%	33%
American Details →	DEN 15:11 → DFW 18:21AA 420	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:07 → GRR 22:35AA 571	5h 24m	43%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON