Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1730 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1730 DEN 05:15 → HOU 08:40 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 2026 DEN 20:25 → HOU 23:55 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1730 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:15	HOU 08:40	3%	1%	0.5%	94%
WN 1595 Southwest	DEN 05:00	HOU 08:24	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4834 Southwest	DEN 07:10	HOU 10:34	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2215 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:25	HOU 10:50	7%	1%	0.5%	92%
WN 1597 Southwest	DEN 10:40	HOU 14:04	19%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 606 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:40	HOU 22:15	22%	5%	0.5%	34%
WN 2026 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:25	HOU 23:55	25%	4%	0.5%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON