Today: UA 1522 at 09:58 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–38%.

Safest bet today UA 1522 DEN 09:58 → IND 14:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest WN 1624 DEN 18:37 → IND 23:07 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1522 United Flight history →	DEN 09:58	IND 14:35	14%	7%	0.1%	87%
WN 1622 Southwest	DEN 10:29	IND 14:58	18%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 1228 United	DEN 13:29	IND 18:07	25%	7%	0.1%	no record
WN 1554 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:55	IND 18:25	26%	6%	0.2%	79%
UA 1199 United Flight history →	DEN 17:53	IND 22:30	28%	10%	0.2%	76%
F9 2346 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:39	IND 15:18	31%	9%	0.4%	78%
WN 2837 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:55	IND 19:20	31%	7%	0.1%	67%
F9 2348 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:35	IND 20:08	31%	9%	0.4%	83%worse than usual
WN 1623 Southwest	DEN 15:30	IND 19:59	32%	8%	0.2%	no record
WN 1211 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:15	IND 23:50	36%	13%	0.2%	37%
WN 1624 Southwest	DEN 18:37	IND 23:07	38%	11%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON