Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:08 pm at Denver); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: DL 758 at 23:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops today


DL 758 Delta Flight history →	DEN 23:55	JFK 05:44	12%	4%	0.1%	95%
B6 98 JetBlue Flight history →	DEN 23:59	JFK 05:50	32%	13%	0.4%	71%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 19:09 → SLC 20:49DL 2663	3h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:59 → JFK 06:18 +1DL 705	9h 09m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DEN 19:57 → LAX 21:30DL 2176	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → JFK 07:03 +1DL 676	9h 06m	77%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON