Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3106 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3106 DEN 05:45 → LAS 06:40 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest F9 777 DEN 22:29 → LAS 23:29 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3106 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:45	LAS 06:40	2%	1%	0.6%	100%
WN 1629 Southwest	DEN 08:27	LAS 09:21	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1627 Southwest	DEN 07:25	LAS 08:19	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1024 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:30	LAS 09:25	7%	1%	0.6%	92%
WN 1559 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:40	LAS 08:35	8%	1%	0.6%	88%
UA 2316 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	LAS 09:07	8%	3%	0.5%	94%
UA 1767 United Flight history →	DEN 09:47	LAS 10:51	9%	3%	0.5%	89%
WN 2353 Southwest	DEN 09:43	LAS 10:40	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
F9 2015 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:10	LAS 07:09	10%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 526 United Flight history →	DEN 11:22	LAS 12:24	12%	5%	0.5%	83%
WN 1561 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:00	LAS 11:55	16%	2%	0.5%	83%
WN 389 Southwest	DEN 11:12	LAS 12:09	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 716 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	LAS 17:03	17%	6%	0.5%	78%
F9 2349 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 07:24	LAS 08:28	17%	6%	0.7%	74%
UA 2338 United Flight history →	DEN 17:46	LAS 18:50	18%	7%	0.5%	64%
WN 1567 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:55	LAS 22:55	18%	5%	0.6%	44%
UA 655 United Flight history →	DEN 19:05	LAS 20:08	19%	6%	0.5%	70%
F9 1993 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:00	LAS 11:07	19%	8%	0.7%	81%
WN 1562 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:15	LAS 14:10	21%	4%	0.5%	53%
WN 1565 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:00	LAS 20:00	22%	6%	0.5%	36%
WN 1564 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:30	LAS 18:30	22%	6%	0.5%	51%
WN 1566 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:35	LAS 21:30	22%	5%	0.5%	44%
F9 4967 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 12:47	LAS 13:47	25%	13%	0.7%	72%
F9 777 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:29	LAS 23:29	25%	11%	0.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON