Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Today: WN 1580 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet today WN 1580 DEN 07:45 → LGB 09:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest WN 1269 DEN 19:30 → LGB 20:58 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1580 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	LGB 09:15	7%	1%	0.2%	74%
WN 1655 Southwest	DEN 08:48	LGB 10:15	9%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1037 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:15	LGB 20:00	18%	5%	0.6%	56%
WN 4259 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:25	LGB 14:50	22%	4%	0.5%	51%
WN 4483 Southwest	DEN 14:50	LGB 16:17	25%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1269 Southwest	DEN 19:30	LGB 20:58	25%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON