Today: WN 4302 at 11:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet today WN 4302 DEN 11:55 → LIT 15:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest UA 1470 DEN 17:41 → LIT 20:49 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4302 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:55	LIT 15:05	11%	1%	0.1%	76%
UA 5369 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 09:35	LIT 12:54	11%	4%	0.2%	89%
WN 3705 Southwest	DEN 13:05	LIT 16:15	12%	2%	0.1%	no record
UA 5760 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:20	LIT 16:42	18%	4%	0.2%	88%
UA 1282 United Flight history →	DEN 17:25	LIT 20:37	25%	8%	0.2%	69%
UA 1470 United	DEN 17:41	LIT 20:49	28%	8%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON