Today: UA 5333 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–38%.

Safest bet today UA 5333 DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 5252 DEN 19:05 → MAF 21:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 31% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5333 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	MAF 12:59	24%	5%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
OO 394 SkyWest	DEN 13:49	MAF 16:38	26%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 5219 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:40	MAF 19:39	26%	8%	0.6%	77%
UA 5270 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:40	MAF 16:34	28%	5%	0.6%	85%worse than usual
WN 765 Southwest	DEN 19:35	MAF 22:23	32%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 3473 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	MAF 23:45	35%	9%	0.7%	52%
OO 5364 SkyWest	DEN 19:16	MAF 22:19	35%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 5252 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	MAF 21:59	38%	10%	0.7%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON