Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1659 at 05:03 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 1659 DEN 05:03 → MCI 07:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3376 DEN 16:51 → MCI 19:45 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1659 Southwest	DEN 05:03	MCI 07:47	5%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 1584 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:40	MCI 11:15	8%	1%	0.5%	93%
WN 1362 Southwest	DEN 08:15	MCI 11:00	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
UA 2159 United Flight history →	DEN 09:43	MCI 12:30	12%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 5247 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	MCI 10:50	13%	5%	0.2%	93%
WN 3114 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	MCI 12:45	13%	2%	0.5%	98%worse than usual
WN 2512 Southwest	DEN 10:36	MCI 13:21	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
OO 4756 SkyWest	DEN 08:12	MCI 11:12	14%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 2543 Southwest	DEN 12:21	MCI 15:06	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1586 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:10	MCI 13:45	16%	2%	0.5%	82%
WN 351 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:30	MCI 15:05	18%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 586 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	MCI 16:22	19%	4%	0.5%	88%
F9 4828 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:16	MCI 13:00	22%	5%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
WN 1587 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:10	MCI 17:50	23%	4%	0.5%	51%
WN 163 Southwest	DEN 14:47	MCI 17:32	25%	4%	0.5%	no record
OO 4760 SkyWest	DEN 15:37	MCI 18:27	25%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 5385 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 15:38	MCI 18:30	25%	8%	0.6%	70%
WN 2648 Southwest	DEN 16:27	MCI 19:13	25%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1596 United Flight history →	DEN 20:40	MCI 23:25	26%	6%	0.5%	67%
WN 4005 Southwest	DEN 18:46	MCI 21:32	30%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 2793 United Flight history →	DEN 17:55	MCI 20:43	31%	9%	0.5%	56%
WN 4305 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:55	MCI 20:45	32%	5%	0.5%	45%
F9 3376 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:51	MCI 19:45	33%	8%	0.7%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON