Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Today: WN 4854 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–37%.

Safest bet today WN 4854 DEN 05:00 → MCO 10:40 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2137 DEN 15:32 → MCO 21:05 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4854 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:00	MCO 10:40	5%	1%	0.4%	90%
WN 1667 Southwest	DEN 05:20	MCO 10:52	5%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 2321 United Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MCO 11:44	6%	2%	0.3%	97%
UA 1437 United	DEN 05:55	MCO 11:30	6%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 1672 Southwest	DEN 00:05	MCO 05:28	7%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 799 United	DEN 00:12	MCO 05:48	9%	4%	0.4%	no record
UA 2292 United Flight history →	DEN 08:10	MCO 13:57	10%	4%	0.3%	89%
WN 1668 Southwest	DEN 07:45	MCO 13:15	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
F9 4646 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:36	MCO 12:21	15%	7%	0.6%	86%
UA 2354 United Flight history →	DEN 10:10	MCO 16:04	17%	7%	0.5%	85%
WN 1339 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	MCO 15:55	20%	4%	0.6%	85%
WN 1596 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:45	MCO 01:40	26%	9%	0.9%	46%
UA 501 United Flight history →	DEN 13:48	MCO 19:39	27%	12%	1.0%	73%
UA 259 United Flight history →	DEN 17:52	MCO 23:41	30%	9%	1.2%	78%
WN 1495 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:10	MCO 20:05	33%	9%	0.9%	61%
F9 3312 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:36	MCO 16:30	35%	11%	1.2%	74%
WN 1671 Southwest	DEN 18:50	MCO 00:21	37%	9%	1.2%	no record
F9 2520 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:21	MCO 01:06	37%	16%	1.2%	68%
WN 2137 Southwest	DEN 15:32	MCO 21:05	41%	10%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DEN 07:15 → ATL 12:11DL 431	47m Atlanta	ATL 12:58 → MCO 14:29DL 1576	5h 14m	77%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON