Today: UA 2789 at 10:58 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–33%.

Safest bet today UA 2789 DEN 10:58 → MEM 14:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2019 DEN 19:25 → MEM 22:48 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 23% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2789 United	DEN 10:58	MEM 14:25	13%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4698 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:30	MEM 13:55	15%	3%	0.1%	77%
UA 1112 United Flight history →	DEN 11:05	MEM 14:26	15%	4%	0.2%	92%
WN 1680 Southwest	DEN 10:52	MEM 14:13	18%	3%	0.2%	no record
UA 2130 United Flight history →	DEN 17:30	MEM 20:56	25%	8%	0.6%	75%
F9 4626 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:43	MEM 19:03	30%	8%	0.3%	85%worse than usual
WN 2225 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	MEM 22:30	31%	7%	0.5%	38%
WN 2019 Southwest	DEN 19:25	MEM 22:48	33%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON