Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:43 pm at Denver); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, UA 663 at 19:30, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 663 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	MFR 21:16	23%	9%	0.2%	79%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Medford is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DEN 19:09 → SLC 20:49DL 2663	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:59 → MFR 23:54DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest	5h 45m	95%	85%
United Details →	DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633	3h 54m San Francisco	SFO 21:24 → MFR 22:59UA 548	8h 12m	97%	72%
United Details →	DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007	1h 28m San Francisco	SFO 21:08 → MFR 22:32UA 1219	5h 38m	79%	58%
Alaska Details →	DEN 17:58 → SEA 19:44AS 615	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 22:34 → MFR 00:05 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	7h 07m	96%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 18:48 → PHX 19:51AA 2602	1h 19m Phoenix	PHX 21:10 → MFR 23:38AA 4915 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	58%	44%
Delta Details →	DEN 18:39 → SEA 20:41DL 2543	54m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	5h 32m	48%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON