Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3141 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3141 DEN 07:30 → MKE 10:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OO 560 DEN 17:33 → MKE 21:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3141 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:30	MKE 10:50	9%	1%	0.5%	85%
UA 1836 United Flight history →	DEN 09:57	MKE 13:25	12%	3%	0.6%	87%
WN 1626 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:15	MKE 13:40	14%	2%	0.5%	97%worse than usual
WN 3710 Southwest	DEN 10:55	MKE 14:16	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
OO 4718 SkyWest	DEN 13:38	MKE 17:24	19%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 1634 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	MKE 22:30	22%	6%	0.5%	15%
WN 2320 Southwest	DEN 15:40	MKE 19:00	25%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 4774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:40	MKE 21:15	26%	9%	0.6%	59%
UA 4785 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:27	MKE 23:59	26%	9%	0.6%	63%
OO 560 SkyWest	DEN 17:33	MKE 21:00	28%	10%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON