Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:03 pm at Denver); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


UA 1371 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	MRY 21:10	28%	10%	0.6%	51%
UA 1822 United	DEN 19:30	MRY 21:18	31%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Monterey is 1 h behind Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389	1h 20m San Francisco	SFO 22:40 → MRY 23:47UA 5670 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	75%	52%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	DEN 19:59 → SAN 21:40AS 3020 · flown by SkyWest	46m San Diego	SAN 22:26 → MRY 23:58AS 3005 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	60%	42%
American Details →	DEN 18:48 → PHX 19:50AA 2602	47m Phoenix	PHX 20:37 → MRY 22:33AA 6374 · flown by SkyWest	4h 45m	46%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON