Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today OO 5535 DEN 14:12 → MSO 16:43 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1092 DEN 19:30 → MSO 21:39 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 3 flights that already left today are not shown.


OO 5535 SkyWest	DEN 14:12	MSO 16:43	17%	6%	0.2%	no record
UA 2357 United Flight history →	DEN 11:50	MSO 13:30	18%	4%	0.1%	84%
UA 4783 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 14:00	MSO 16:20	19%	5%	0.2%	86%
UA 1092 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	MSO 21:39	26%	6%	0.1%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON