Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 22 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1129 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1129 DEN 06:00 → MSP 09:00 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1292 DEN 18:21 → MSP 21:27 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1129 Delta Flight history →	DEN 06:00	MSP 09:00	4%	2%	0.5%	91%
WN 3420 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:50	MSP 10:55	8%	2%	0.4%	97%
DL 2877 Delta Flight history →	DEN 08:47	MSP 11:48	8%	2%	0.5%	85%
WN 935 Southwest	DEN 07:35	MSP 10:37	8%	2%	0.4%	no record
UA 773 United Flight history →	DEN 07:40	MSP 10:38	9%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 397 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	MSP 12:40	11%	3%	0.5%	87%
DL 1675 Delta Flight history →	DEN 09:19	MSP 12:14	12%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 2849 Delta Flight history →	DEN 11:08	MSP 14:08	14%	3%	0.5%	75%
WN 3973 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:10	MSP 13:10	16%	2%	0.4%	82%
WN 4250 Southwest	DEN 11:16	MSP 14:18	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
DL 2271 Delta Flight history →	DEN 16:08	MSP 19:15	20%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 732 United Flight history →	DEN 13:42	MSP 16:46	21%	4%	0.5%	84%
WN 277 Southwest	DEN 13:57	MSP 16:59	22%	4%	0.4%	no record
DL 1220 Delta Flight history →	DEN 18:32	MSP 21:34	22%	5%	0.6%	72%
UA 2470 United Flight history →	DEN 15:42	MSP 18:46	24%	5%	0.5%	76%
WN 2677 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:05	MSP 22:10	24%	6%	0.5%	34%
F9 1150 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:36	MSP 13:47	24%	5%	0.6%	84%
WN 4541 Southwest	DEN 15:26	MSP 18:28	25%	5%	0.4%	no record
UA 667 United Flight history →	DEN 20:54	MSP 23:59	25%	5%	0.5%	59%
WN 1639 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:25	MSP 18:20	26%	5%	0.4%	52%
UA 2076 United Flight history →	DEN 18:45	MSP 21:50	26%	6%	0.5%	76%
F9 1292 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:21	MSP 21:27	33%	10%	0.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON