Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1642 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1642 DEN 08:00 → MSY 11:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 859 DEN 17:00 → MSY 20:41 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1642 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 08:00	MSY 11:45	10%	2%	0.8%	96%
UA 2273 United Flight history →	DEN 09:50	MSY 13:39	14%	4%	0.9%	89%
WN 4252 Southwest	DEN 09:50	MSY 13:31	15%	2%	0.7%	no record
F9 2360 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 06:10	MSY 10:12	17%	7%	1.2%	81%
UA 250 United Flight history →	DEN 13:29	MSY 17:20	23%	7%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
WN 3419 Southwest	DEN 13:50	MSY 17:34	25%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 3301 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:00	MSY 23:45	26%	6%	0.7%	36%
WN 1643 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 14:50	MSY 18:25	28%	5%	0.7%	64%
UA 1541 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	MSY 21:34	30%	9%	0.8%	77%
WN 859 Southwest	DEN 17:00	MSY 20:41	30%	5%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON