Today: UA 1656 at 13:34 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–39%.

Safest bet today UA 1656 DEN 13:34 → OKC 16:24 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 175 DEN 20:05 → OKC 22:45 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 6 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1656 United	DEN 13:34	OKC 16:24	21%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 5808 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 13:25	OKC 16:15	26%	6%	0.2%	85%worse than usual
WN 392 Southwest	DEN 15:05	OKC 17:49	26%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 1184 United Flight history →	DEN 17:31	OKC 20:11	29%	7%	0.2%	70%
WN 1704 Southwest	DEN 19:25	OKC 22:09	31%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 1653 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:30	OKC 20:05	31%	6%	0.2%	49%
F9 1928 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:53	OKC 19:43	33%	9%	0.4%	83%worse than usual
UA 4727 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:42	OKC 23:29	36%	8%	0.3%	76%worse than usual
WN 175 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:05	OKC 22:45	39%	7%	0.2%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON