Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3459 at 08:31 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3459 DEN 08:31 → PDX 10:13 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1670 DEN 19:25 → PDX 21:00 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 4% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3459 Southwest	DEN 08:31	PDX 10:13	7%	1%	0.4%	no record
UA 1247 United Flight history →	DEN 08:05	PDX 09:47	8%	2%	0.5%	88%
WN 300 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	PDX 09:25	9%	1%	0.4%	73%
AS 1626 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 08:00	PDX 09:46	11%	2%	0.5%	88%
AS 1316 Alaska	DEN 07:51	PDX 09:34	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 644 United Flight history →	DEN 11:27	PDX 13:09	11%	5%	0.5%	84%
UA 2455 United Flight history →	DEN 13:27	PDX 15:13	11%	5%	0.5%	90%
AS 684 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 12:02	PDX 13:46	12%	3%	0.5%	89%
UA 1337 United Flight history →	DEN 16:00	PDX 17:46	15%	5%	0.5%	84%
F9 2553 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:01	PDX 11:51	16%	5%	0.7%	87%
WN 4271 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:45	PDX 13:25	18%	3%	0.4%	67%
AS 1807 Alaska Flight history →	DEN 19:05	PDX 20:50	18%	5%	0.5%	58%
WN 1717 Southwest	DEN 12:36	PDX 14:19	19%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 1770 United Flight history →	DEN 21:30	PDX 23:13	20%	6%	0.5%	69%
UA 498 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	PDX 21:15	22%	6%	0.5%	80%
WN 1669 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:15	PDX 20:00	26%	6%	0.4%	41%
WN 1671 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	PDX 22:50	31%	5%	0.5%	32%
WN 1670 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:25	PDX 21:00	33%	6%	0.4%	4%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON