Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 30% on a calm day. Safest: UA 2655 at 19:56, 31%.

Safest bet today UA 2655 DEN 19:56 → PHX 21:03 · 31% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1714 DEN 17:30 → PHX 18:27 · 49% chance 15+ min late

Weather 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 30% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 26 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 2655 United	DEN 19:56	PHX 21:03	31%	9%	0.2%	no record
UA 1194 United	DEN 21:05	PHX 22:13	31%	8%	0.2%	no record
UA 1507 United	DEN 18:27	PHX 19:26	33%	12%	0.2%	no record
UA 1729 United Flight history →	DEN 19:32	PHX 20:32	33%	9%	0.2%	76%
UA 1236 United Flight history →	DEN 20:59	PHX 21:59	36%	8%	0.2%	68%
WN 1685 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 22:10	PHX 23:10	38%	8%	0.3%	65%
F9 4753 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:36	PHX 23:32	38%	12%	0.6%	68%
WN 4786 Southwest	DEN 22:00	PHX 22:58	40%	7%	0.3%	no record
F9 4765 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 18:45	PHX 19:51	42%	15%	0.6%	69%worse than usual
WN 1737 Southwest	DEN 21:03	PHX 22:01	43%	9%	0.2%	no record
WN 1684 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:10	PHX 22:05	45%	9%	0.2%	40%
WN 550 Southwest	DEN 16:21	PHX 16:40	46%	9%	0.3%	no record
AA 2602 American Flight history →	DEN 18:48	PHX 19:50	46%	14%	0.4%	36%
AA 1638 American Flight history →	DEN 18:56	PHX 19:52	47%	14%	0.4%	51%
WN 4447 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:05	PHX 21:05	48%	10%	0.2%	33%
WN 1734 Southwest	DEN 18:35	PHX 19:33	48%	11%	0.3%	no record
WN 1757 Southwest	DEN 20:05	PHX 21:03	49%	10%	0.2%	no record
WN 1714 Southwest	DEN 17:30	PHX 18:27	49%	10%	0.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON