Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: UA 1308 at 10:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet today UA 1308 DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest WN 4551 DEN 18:45 → PIT 23:46 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 23% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1308 United Flight history →	DEN 10:05	PIT 15:16	15%	4%	0.2%	85%
WN 4012 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:00	PIT 15:10	16%	3%	0.1%	76%
WN 1739 Southwest	DEN 10:36	PIT 15:38	16%	3%	0.4%	no record
WN 4424 Southwest	DEN 15:20	PIT 20:22	27%	6%	0.4%	no record
WN 4381 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:35	PIT 20:35	28%	6%	0.5%	62%
UA 2155 United Flight history →	DEN 17:38	PIT 22:45	28%	6%	0.6%	71%
WN 1688 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:10	PIT 01:15	31%	6%	0.5%	45%
WN 4551 Southwest	DEN 18:45	PIT 23:46	33%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON