Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1891 DEN 11:16 → PNS 15:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3930 DEN 10:26 → PNS 14:31 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1891 United	DEN 11:16	PNS 15:10	17%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 2264 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:45	PNS 17:40	22%	6%	0.8%	67%
F9 3930 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 10:26	PNS 14:31	23%	9%	1.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON