Today: UA 687 at 11:22 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–38%.

Safest bet today UA 687 DEN 11:22 → PSP 12:46 · 21% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3830 DEN 20:55 → PSP 22:15 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 687 United	DEN 11:22	PSP 12:46	21%	5%	0.2%	no record
UA 1294 United Flight history →	DEN 11:15	PSP 12:28	24%	5%	0.2%	79%
OO 305 SkyWest	DEN 15:45	PSP 17:08	28%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 2644 United Flight history →	DEN 19:30	PSP 21:01	35%	9%	0.2%	74%
WN 1743 Southwest	DEN 20:50	PSP 22:07	38%	6%	0.1%	no record
WN 3830 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	PSP 22:15	38%	7%	0.1%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON