Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:28 pm at Denver); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 31% (calm day: 19%). Best bet: Southwest via St Louis, leaving 15:40, 57% on time.

Nonstops today


UA 572 United	DEN 16:21	RSW 22:15	24%	7%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 2 h ahead of Denver). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	DEN 14:55 → IND 19:20WN 2837	1h 40m Indianapolis	IND 21:00 → RSW 23:34WN 1441	6h 39m	94%	67%
Southwest Details →	DEN 15:40 → STL 18:45WN 3130	1h 40m St Louis	STL 20:25 → RSW 00:03 +1WN 4122	6h 23m	85%	66%
American Details →	DEN 14:29 → CLT 19:12AA 1662	1h 44m Charlotte	CLT 20:56 → RSW 22:52AA 1176	6h 23m	88%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DEN 14:34 → ORD 18:29AA 1760	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → RSW 23:29AA 3238	6h 55m	64%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON