Today: WN 2664 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet today WN 2664 DEN 07:40 → SAT 10:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest WN 2073 DEN 19:50 → SAT 23:10 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 33% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2664 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:40	SAT 10:50	8%	1%	0.1%	84%
WN 1760 Southwest	DEN 07:18	SAT 09:56	8%	1%	0.1%	no record
UA 2625 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	SAT 12:43	11%	3%	0.1%	92%
WN 3149 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 09:20	SAT 12:25	12%	2%	0.1%	81%
WN 1311 Southwest	DEN 10:32	SAT 13:44	14%	2%	0.1%	no record
UA 1022 United Flight history →	DEN 13:44	SAT 16:55	16%	4%	0.1%	90%
F9 2356 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 15:30	SAT 18:44	21%	7%	0.3%	82%
UA 395 United Flight history →	DEN 20:39	SAT 23:55	22%	8%	0.5%	66%
UA 2819 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	SAT 20:54	24%	8%	0.5%	61%
WN 4678 Southwest	DEN 16:43	SAT 19:59	24%	5%	0.4%	no record
OO 5598 SkyWest	DEN 20:36	SAT 00:25	24%	8%	0.7%	no record
WN 1245 Southwest	DEN 15:11	SAT 18:26	25%	5%	0.1%	no record
WN 2607 Southwest	DEN 20:53	SAT 00:09	28%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 1708 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:40	SAT 21:05	30%	5%	0.4%	18%
WN 2073 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:50	SAT 23:10	30%	6%	0.5%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON