Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 2479 DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time Riskiest WN 3842 DEN 20:55 → SBA 22:30 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 2479 United Flight history →	DEN 19:23	SBA 20:59	28%	10%	0.5%	56%
WN 1765 Southwest	DEN 21:35	SBA 23:15	33%	8%	0.3%	no record
WN 3842 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	SBA 22:30	35%	9%	0.3%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON