Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1479 at 09:45 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1479 DEN 09:45 → SDF 14:28 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 514 DEN 17:45 → SDF 22:27 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1479 United Flight history →	DEN 09:45	SDF 14:28	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
WN 1712 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 12:55	SDF 17:25	21%	4%	0.5%	76%
WN 1766 Southwest	DEN 13:45	SDF 18:18	22%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2027 United Flight history →	DEN 18:08	SDF 22:59	28%	9%	0.6%	69%
UA 514 United Flight history →	DEN 17:45	SDF 22:27	30%	8%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON