tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1482 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet that day UA 1482 DEN 06:00 → SEA 08:00 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AS 317 DEN 08:40 → SEA 10:42 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time
Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
UA 1482 United Flight history → DEN 06:00 SEA 08:00 14% 3% 0.6% 92%
DL 1731 Delta Flight history → DEN 06:30 SEA 08:26 15% 3% 0.6% 91%
DL 1358 Delta Flight history → DEN 13:03 SEA 15:05 16% 6% 0.6% 80%
AS 643 Alaska Flight history → DEN 06:02 SEA 08:05 16% 3% 0.6% 89%
UA 2013 United Flight history → DEN 15:58 SEA 17:59 20% 9% 0.6% 80%
UA 1424 United Flight history → DEN 11:21 SEA 13:21 22% 6% 0.6% 86%
AS 535 Alaska Flight history → DEN 16:36 SEA 18:38 22% 7% 0.6% 67%
AS 493 Alaska Flight history → DEN 21:08 SEA 23:10 24% 5% 0.6% 57%
WN 1713 Southwest Flight history → DEN 07:45 SEA 09:45 25% 3% 0.5% 84%
UA 2164 United Flight history → DEN 14:00 SEA 16:00 25% 8% 0.6% 84%
UA 2651 United Flight history → DEN 21:10 SEA 23:10 25% 7% 0.6% 72%
DL 2543 Delta Flight history → DEN 18:39 SEA 20:41 25% 5% 0.6% 57%
UA 2271 United Flight history → DEN 08:01 SEA 10:00 26% 5% 0.6% 91%worse than usual
AS 682 Alaska Flight history → DEN 11:57 SEA 13:46 26% 5% 0.6% 83%
UA 2058 United DEN 11:18 SEA 13:02 26% 8% 0.6% no record
UA 2833 United DEN 14:08 SEA 16:10 26% 9% 0.6% no record
AS 381 Alaska Flight history → DEN 12:55 SEA 14:53 28% 6% 0.6% 77%
AS 249 Alaska Flight history → DEN 18:15 SEA 20:17 28% 6% 0.6% 58%
F9 1175 Frontier Flight history → DEN 13:05 SEA 15:01 28% 12% 0.7% 81%
UA 1348 United DEN 07:57 SEA 09:40 28% 6% 0.6% no record
UA 360 United Flight history → DEN 19:10 SEA 21:10 31% 6% 0.6% 69%
WN 3051 Southwest Flight history → DEN 10:05 SEA 12:05 32% 5% 0.5% 76%
WN 3856 Southwest Flight history → DEN 21:10 SEA 23:10 32% 9% 0.5% 28%
WN 4130 Southwest Flight history → DEN 12:30 SEA 14:25 33% 6% 0.4% 37%
WN 447 Southwest DEN 11:30 SEA 13:14 35% 6% 0.5% no record
F9 4545 Frontier Flight history → DEN 07:13 SEA 09:17 35% 8% 0.8% 82%worse than usual
WN 4392 Southwest DEN 08:30 SEA 10:13 38% 4% 0.5% no record
WN 1716 Southwest Flight history → DEN 19:50 SEA 21:50 39% 10% 0.5% 33%
AS 317 Alaska Flight history → DEN 08:40 SEA 10:42 39% 5% 0.6% 84%worse than usual
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON