Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1780 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1780 DEN 06:05 → SLC 07:36 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4251 DEN 22:13 → SLC 23:44 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1780 Southwest	DEN 06:05	SLC 07:36	3%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 2544 Delta Flight history →	DEN 05:40	SLC 07:13	5%	2%	0.4%	87%
WN 452 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:45	SLC 09:20	7%	1%	0.4%	90%
WN 3502 Southwest	DEN 08:36	SLC 10:05	8%	1%	0.4%	no record
DL 1581 Delta Flight history →	DEN 07:05	SLC 08:36	8%	2%	0.4%	92%
UA 497 United Flight history →	DEN 08:00	SLC 09:37	10%	3%	0.5%	90%
WN 4027 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	SLC 11:45	10%	2%	0.4%	80%
DL 1553 Delta Flight history →	DEN 12:45	SLC 14:20	13%	4%	0.4%	84%
DL 1623 Delta Flight history →	DEN 15:55	SLC 17:32	13%	5%	0.4%	84%
DL 1317 Delta	DEN 10:44	SLC 12:12	14%	3%	0.4%	no record
F9 3219 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 09:01	SLC 10:40	14%	5%	0.6%	83%
WN 1731 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:45	SLC 13:25	15%	3%	0.4%	64%
WN 1733 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:50	SLC 18:35	16%	5%	0.4%	63%
UA 5261 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 16:29	SLC 18:10	16%	5%	0.6%	76%
UA 1963 United Flight history →	DEN 11:40	SLC 13:13	19%	4%	0.5%	80%
UA 1840 United Flight history →	DEN 13:40	SLC 15:13	20%	5%	0.5%	84%
UA 5762 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 17:45	SLC 19:25	20%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 5646 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 21:05	SLC 22:44	21%	6%	0.6%	80%
WN 1732 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 13:05	SLC 14:35	22%	3%	0.4%	50%
DL 2663 Delta Flight history →	DEN 19:09	SLC 20:49	22%	4%	0.5%	72%
WN 1734 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 17:50	SLC 19:35	22%	5%	0.5%	45%
F9 3981 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 13:18	SLC 14:55	22%	8%	0.6%	86%
WN 1737 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:55	SLC 22:40	23%	6%	0.5%	40%
UA 2769 United Flight history →	DEN 19:23	SLC 20:56	28%	6%	0.5%	53%
F9 4251 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 22:13	SLC 23:44	28%	8%	0.6%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON