Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1796 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1796 DEN 05:50 → STL 08:58 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3302 DEN 16:10 → STL 19:23 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1796 Southwest	DEN 05:50	STL 08:58	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1751 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 05:35	STL 08:35	5%	1%	0.5%	90%
WN 3140 Southwest	DEN 07:10	STL 10:19	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1373 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 07:20	STL 10:25	8%	1%	0.5%	93%
UA 652 United Flight history →	DEN 09:35	STL 12:42	13%	3%	0.5%	84%
WN 1798 Southwest	DEN 10:30	STL 13:39	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 3152 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 11:40	STL 14:50	18%	2%	0.5%	77%
UA 1639 United Flight history →	DEN 13:25	STL 16:33	19%	4%	0.5%	87%
WN 4400 Southwest	DEN 13:54	STL 17:04	22%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 3317 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 20:45	STL 23:55	23%	4%	0.5%	41%
UA 1422 United Flight history →	DEN 17:34	STL 20:43	23%	6%	0.5%	72%
UA 214 United Flight history →	DEN 20:45	STL 23:57	23%	5%	0.5%	58%
WN 3130 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 15:40	STL 18:45	24%	4%	0.5%	62%
WN 1756 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:30	STL 22:45	25%	5%	0.5%	40%
F9 3302 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 16:10	STL 19:23	30%	7%	0.7%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON