Today: OO 717 at 12:02 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–29%.

Safest bet today OO 717 DEN 12:02 → SUN 13:57 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5734 DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 717 SkyWest	DEN 12:02	SUN 13:57	12%	7%	0.2%	no record
UA 5554 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 11:44	SUN 13:47	13%	4%	0.2%	87%
UA 5734 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 19:25	SUN 21:26	29%	6%	0.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON