Today: UA 211 at 10:01 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–31%.

Safest bet today UA 211 DEN 10:01 → SYR 15:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2350 DEN 18:10 → SYR 23:44 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 211 United	DEN 10:01	SYR 15:35	11%	3%	0.1%	no record
UA 1909 United Flight history →	DEN 09:45	SYR 15:12	11%	3%	0.1%	90%
UA 2350 United Flight history →	DEN 18:10	SYR 23:44	31%	6%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON