Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2762 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2762 DEN 06:40 → TPA 12:10 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 1809 DEN 15:50 → TPA 21:15 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2762 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 06:40	TPA 12:10	5%	1%	0.3%	92%
WN 1807 Southwest	DEN 05:00	TPA 10:24	7%	1%	0.2%	no record
WN 3560 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 10:05	TPA 15:45	13%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 1010 United Flight history →	DEN 09:40	TPA 15:14	15%	3%	0.7%	89%
WN 1260 Southwest	DEN 10:35	TPA 16:00	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2375 United Flight history →	DEN 13:55	TPA 19:33	22%	8%	0.8%	86%
F9 2748 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 11:21	TPA 17:00	26%	8%	0.8%	86%worse than usual
UA 1961 United Flight history →	DEN 17:39	TPA 23:17	26%	6%	0.8%	71%
WN 2232 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 19:55	TPA 01:35	27%	7%	0.6%	40%
WN 4739 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 16:50	TPA 22:35	28%	6%	0.6%	42%
WN 1810 Southwest	DEN 18:46	TPA 00:11	31%	6%	0.6%	no record
F9 2746 Frontier Flight history →	DEN 19:00	TPA 00:38	31%	13%	0.8%	77%
WN 1809 Southwest	DEN 15:50	TPA 21:15	35%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON