Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 1969 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 1969 DEN 08:35 → TUS 09:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1762 DEN 19:10 → TUS 20:12 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1969 Southwest	DEN 08:35	TUS 09:42	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1188 United Flight history →	DEN 11:30	TUS 12:32	16%	3%	0.5%	86%
WN 2170 Southwest	DEN 13:26	TUS 14:34	20%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1511 United	DEN 07:43	TUS 08:58	21%	4%	0.2%	no record
UA 2049 United	DEN 15:38	TUS 16:45	22%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 4313 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 21:45	TUS 22:50	28%	8%	0.5%	51%
WN 1195 Southwest Flight history →	DEN 18:10	TUS 19:20	28%	8%	0.5%	42%
WN 2047 Southwest	DEN 17:00	TUS 18:07	31%	6%	0.5%	no record
UA 1762 United Flight history →	DEN 19:10	TUS 20:12	37%	7%	0.6%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON