Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 27–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1351 DEN 17:50 → XNA 20:48 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest UA 5269 DEN 20:37 → XNA 23:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 26% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 2 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1351 United Flight history →	DEN 17:50	XNA 20:48	27%	9%	0.2%	75%
OO 4805 SkyWest	DEN 21:06	XNA 00:16	31%	10%	0.3%	no record
UA 5269 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DEN 20:37	XNA 23:44	33%	9%	0.3%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON