Today: AA 3535 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–43%.

Safest bet today AA 3535 DFW 08:50 → ABQ 09:41 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 9 DFW 17:49 → ABQ 18:41 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 28% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:50	ABQ 09:41	15%	3%	0.3%	80%
AA 3374 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:56	ABQ 12:52	17%	4%	0.3%	90%
AA 3777 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 13:11	ABQ 14:10	19%	5%	0.3%	76%
AA 3381 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:03	ABQ 16:56	21%	6%	0.4%	76%
AA 4269 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:07	ABQ 16:58	25%	5%	0.4%	77%
AA 1912 American	DFW 10:45	ABQ 11:53	28%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 928 American Flight history →	DFW 09:09	ABQ 09:59	30%	6%	0.2%	77%
OO 4941 SkyWest	DFW 14:53	ABQ 15:56	30%	9%	0.2%	no record
AA 1062 American Flight history →	DFW 21:51	ABQ 22:44	37%	11%	1.6%	48%
AA 1321 American Flight history →	DFW 20:55	ABQ 21:59	37%	12%	1.8%	31%
AA 2564 American Flight history →	DFW 22:56	ABQ 23:49	39%	10%	1.8%	60%
AA 9 American Flight history →	DFW 17:49	ABQ 18:41	43%	13%	0.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON