Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4095 DFW 10:53 → BIL 13:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 3937 DFW 19:07 → BIL 21:05 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:53	BIL 13:09	11%	4%	0.2%	84%
AA 3429 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 11:00	BIL 12:59	12%	4%	0.2%	88%
AA 3937 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:07	BIL 21:05	17%	3%	0.6%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON