Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3912 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–37%.

Safest bet that day AA 3912 DFW 06:00 → BNA 08:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 1500 DFW 20:15 → BNA 22:10 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3912 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 06:00	BNA 08:01	9%	3%	0.7%	78%
AA 1103 American Flight history →	DFW 07:12	BNA 09:06	19%	5%	1.2%	82%
AA 1520 American Flight history →	DFW 10:00	BNA 11:53	23%	6%	1.2%	78%
AA 1396 American Flight history →	DFW 09:41	BNA 11:34	24%	6%	0.9%	82%
AA 1084 American	DFW 12:31	BNA 14:30	25%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 1475 American Flight history →	DFW 12:47	BNA 14:41	30%	9%	1.2%	49%
AA 5475 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DFW 16:57	BNA 19:04	31%	12%	0.8%	48%
AA 1522 American Flight history →	DFW 13:46	BNA 15:44	31%	8%	1.2%	60%
F9 3052 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 17:11	BNA 19:13	33%	10%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
AA 1490 American Flight history →	DFW 15:50	BNA 17:48	33%	9%	1.2%	34%
AA 2875 American Flight history →	DFW 13:58	BNA 15:52	34%	9%	1.2%	58%
AA 3169 American Flight history →	DFW 19:14	BNA 21:11	35%	10%	1.0%	41%
AA 1313 American	DFW 15:26	BNA 17:26	35%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 1076 American Flight history →	DFW 18:18	BNA 20:17	35%	10%	1.2%	61%
AA 1500 American Flight history →	DFW 20:15	BNA 22:10	37%	10%	1.2%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON