Today: AA 1615 at 11:55 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–39%.

Safest bet today AA 1615 DFW 11:55 → BUF 15:52 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time Riskiest AA 574 DFW 18:45 → BUF 22:50 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 28% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1615 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	BUF 15:52	21%	7%	0.2%	65%
AA 1724 American Flight history →	DFW 11:56	BUF 15:49	22%	8%	0.2%	76%
AA 574 American Flight history →	DFW 18:45	BUF 22:50	39%	16%	1.0%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON